Analysis of Caged Data

Original Publication Date
06/26/2007
Ballot

In contrast, in precinct 14G with a white population of 84.2%, there was 1 address caged from a population of 1874 registered voters, yielding a caging rate of 0.53 addresses per 1000 people over 18. Thus, the caging rate in "majority black" precinct, 07R, was 73 times greater than the "High White" precinct, 14G. Averaging the caging rates for the 90 "High Black" precincts shows a rate of caging of 6.08 names per 1000, whereas the 179 "High White" precincts had a caging rate of 2.06 per 1000. The 60 "Majority Black" precincts had a caging rate of 7.08 per 1000, over 3 times greater than the caging rate in the "High White" precincts. Whereas the caging list demonstrates that the acquisition of caged addresses was not restricted to "Black" precincts, the effect of caging identifies addresses in "Black" precincts at a higher frequency. In total, although there were more "white" than "Black" precincts with caged addresses, because of the higher caging rate in "Black" precincts, the number of addresses caged in precincts with higher than Jacksonville average Black population was greater (938 "High Black" vs 731"High White").

We next sought to determine whether caging might differentially acquire addresses in Democratic precincts. As we see above, addresses were caged diffusely across 83.2% of Duval County precincts. However, the rate of acquisition of addresses in precincts in which the majority of voters is registered Democratic was over 6-fold greater than registered Republican majority precincts. [See summary table below] Considering that 50.2 % of registered Jacksonville Democratic voters are Black and 83.8% of all Black Jacksonville voters are registered Democrats, the by-precinct caging rates mirror the increased caging rates seen in precincts with higher proportions of Blacks. The most powerful discriminatory effect of caging is observed in comparing the subset of voters in "Strong Democratic" precincts with those in "Strong Republican" precincts (precincts in which registered voters in the indicated party is less than 60% of all registered voters). In the 69 "Strong Democratic" precincts, the caging rate was 6.74 addresses per 1000 registered voters, 37 times greater than the rate in the 9 "Strong Republican" precincts (0.18 addresses per 1000 registered voters). In total, 687 addresses were caged from "Strong Democratic" precincts, but only 3 in "Strong Republican" precincts. Overall, despite the fact that Jacksonville precincts are evenly divided between those with more registered Democrats (144/285) and those with more registered Republicans, because the caging rate is substantially more effective at acquiring addresses in "Democratic" precincts, more addresses from democratic precincts appeared on the caging list. Indeed, of the 1743 caged addresses for which a precinct could be assigned, 1234 caged addresses (70.8%) came from precincts where registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans, whereas 509 addresses (29.2%) came from precincts where registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats.

  Total # Precincts # Precincts caged % Precincts caged # Reg Voters # Addresses caged Cage Rate/1000 reg voters
All Precincts
285
237
83.2
547952
1743
3.18
# Reg Dem >
# Reg Rep
144
132
91.7
254834
1234
4.84
# Reg Rep > #Reg Dem
141
105
74.5
293118
509
1.74
Majority Reg Dem
82
75
91.5
133365
866
6.49
Majority Reg Rep
51
31
60.8
106070
107
1.01
Strong (>60%) Reg Dem
64
61
95.3
101935
687
6.74
Strong (>60%) Reg Rep
9
3
33.3
16569
3
0.18

 

ePluribus Media Contributors: standingup, cho, publius revolts, Aaron Barlow, BronxDem